Backward assessments or expectations: what determines the consumer confidence index more strongly? Panel model based on the CCI of European countries

Małgorzata Grzywińska-Rąpca; Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska

doi:10.59139/ws.2023.02.1

Małgorzata Grzywińska-Rąpca Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie, Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych, Polska / University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Poland ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2088-2795 , Aneta Ptak-Chmielewska Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych, Polska / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, Poland ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9896-4240 Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician, vol. 68, 2023, 2, s. 1-15 Opublikowano online: 28 lutego 2023 DOI 10.59139/ws.2023.02.1 Sposób cytowania: Grzywińska-Rąpca, M., Ptak-Chmielewska, A. (2023). Backward assessments or expectations: what determines the consumer confidence index more strongly? Panel model based on the CCI of European countries. Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician, 68(2), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.59139/ws.2023.02.1.

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ARTYKUŁ

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STRESZCZENIE

The consumer confidence index (CCI) is an index constructed on the basis of subjective assessments of the economic situation (retroactive and future), in many studies used as a variable supplementing the forecasting of consumer behaviour. Its significance is evidenced by the literature on consumer sentiment. Research on developed, economically stable countries focuses on assessments of the economic situation in the preceding period. On the other hand, according to many authors, the analysis of economically unstable states should focus on the expectations of respondents. The aim of the study is to check which respondent assessments (retroactive or expectations for the future) have a statistically significant impact on the level of the CCI and to examine the differences in respondent assessments between countries (cross-sectionally), as well as the time differences (time series effects). The panel modelling was carried out using data for the CCI as a dependent variable and a set of independent variables for all European Union countries and five non-member states. The data were collected from the Eurostat database. The analysis period of seven years and five months (January 2015–May 2022) results from the availability of data. The SAS 9.4 software was used in this research.
The results of the survey showed that higher expectations of respondents result in a higher CCI, and that they have a statistically significant impact on the level of the index. The modelling also demonstrated that the differences in respondent’ assessments between countries are significant, whereas the time differences are not.

SŁOWA KLUCZOWE

consumer confidence index, CCI, subjective assessment, panel model, European countries

JEL

C22, C33, D14, E21, G50

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